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Predicting Student Performance in an Intelligent Tutoring System

Vorhersage von Schülerleistungen in einem intelligenten Nachhilfesystem

  • Predicting student performance (PSP) is an important task in Student Modeling where we would like to know whether the students solve the given problems (tasks) correctly, so that we can understand how the students learn, provide them early feedbacks, and help them getting better in studying. This thesis introduces several approaches, which mainly base on state-ofthe- art techniques in Recommender Systems (RS), for student modeling, especially for PSP. First, we formulate the PSP problem and show how to map this problem to rating prediction task in RS and to forecasting problem. Second, we propose using latent factor models, e.g., matrix factorization, for student modeling. These models could implicitly take into account the student and task latent factors (e.g., slip and guess) as well as student effect/bias and task effect/bias. Moreover, there is a fact that similar students may have similar performances, we suggest using k-nearest neighbors collaborative filtering to take into account the correlations between the students and the tasks. Third, in student's problem solving, each student performs several tasks, and each task requires one or many skills, while the students are also required to master the skills that they have learned. We propose to exploit such multiple relationships by using multi-relational matrix factorization approach. Fourth, as the student performance (student knowledge) cumulates and improves over time, a trend line could be observed in his/her performance. Similar to time series, for solving this problem, forecasting techniques would be reasonable choices. Furthermore, it is well-know that student (human) knowledge is diverse, thus, thought and performance of one student may differ from another one. To cope with these aspects, we propose personalized forecasting methods which use the past performances of individual student to forecast his/her own future performance. Fifth, since student knowledge changes over time, temporal/sequential information would be an important factor in PSP. We propose tensor factorization methods to model both the student/task latent factors and the sequential/temporal effects. Sixth, we open an issue for recommendation in e-learning, that is, recommending the tasks to the students. This approach can tackle existing issues in the literature since we can recommend the tasks to the students using their performance instead of their preference. Based on student performance, we can recommend suitable tasks to the students by filtering out the tasks that are too easy or too hard, or both, depending on the system goal. Furthermore, we propose using context-aware factorization approach to utilize multiple interactions between the students and the tasks. Seventh, we discover a characteristic in student performance data, namely class imbalance problem, i.e., the number of correct solutions are higher than the number of incorrect solutions, which may hinder classifiers' performance. To tackle this problem, we introduce several methods as well as introducing a new evaluation measure for learning from imbalanced data. Finally, we validate the proposed methods by many experiments. We compare them with other state-of-the-art methods and empirically show that, in most of the cases, the proposed methods can improve the prediction results. We therefore conclude that our approaches would be reasonable choices for student modeling, especially for predicting student performance. Last but not least, we raise some open issues for the future research in this area.

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Author:Thai-Nghe Nguyen
Advisor:Lars Schmidt-Thieme
Document Type:Doctoral Thesis
Date of Publication (online):2012/04/17
Year of first Publication:2011
Publishing Institution:Stiftung Universität Hildesheim
Granting Institution:Universität Hildesheim, Fachbereich IV
Date of final exam:2012/04/12
Release Date:2012/04/17
Page Number:179
PPN:Link zum Katalog
Institutes:Fachbereich IV / Informatik
DDC classes:000 Allgemeines, Informatik, Informationswissenschaft / 000 Allgemeines, Wissenschaft / 004 Informatik
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell - Keine Bearbeitung 3.0